Field Notes
Reading false breaks at confluence
How we separate a failed probe beyond a trendline cluster from a genuine structure break.
False breaks around confluence frustrate newer traders because the zone “looked perfect.” In training we treat the probe as information, not betrayal.
Context from volume of session
A thin probe beyond the band during a quiet hour differs from a wide-range close through the band during the London cash open. We annotate session context next to the zone in the workbook.
Close versus wick
Our default teaching rule: a wick beyond the band with a close back inside often remains a touch scenario; a close beyond with follow-through on the next bar is treated as a break until proven otherwise. Instruments differ — we adjust the rule in coaching rather than pretending one candle law fits all markets.
Journal language
Write “probe rejected” or “structure broken” with the bar time. Avoid “stopped out unfairly.” The journal is for future confluence decisions, not courtroom rhetoric.